Assessing Newcastle United's start to the 2024/25 season.

With more than a quarter of the season played, what does the data tell us about Eddie Howe's third full-season in charge so far?

Hello again. It's been a couple of months since I last dusted off my keyboard to write about the never-ending story of Newcastle United. It's been even longer since I properly delved into the underlying numbers that depict the health of Eddie Howe’s team.

In my last post on this subject, I concluded that, with the additions of a new centre-back and right winger, and with a fair wind, Newcastle United could be in the mix for the Champions League spots. Unless things dramatically change—and there are some signs that they might—I’m far less confident about this prediction.

Why? Well, now that we have 10 league games worth of data from the new 2024/25 Premier League season we simply don’t look good enough to sustain a run for the top 5. To borrow a phrase from the hype beasts on Twitter, our metrics “look mid”.

Pedestrian in attack.

Before we start interpreting the data, it’s important to remember that we had a red card in the opening game of the season, which somewhat negatively skews our small sample.

Nevertheless, Newcastle United’s attacking 🔴 so far this season is a little below the league average 🔵. We’re taking too few shots (12.4 per 90) at a pedestrian-level chance quality (0.10 xG per shot).

When you compare this to 2023/24 🔴, the difference is stark. Across nearly all metrics on the radar, performance is down, and if we’re to have any chance of securing a European spot, we need to improve quickly or get lucky (more on our luck so far later).

The key to turning this around is the intensity and effectiveness of Newcastle United’s press. In a team that – Guimaraes aside – lacks technically gifted passers who create chances, winning the ball back in the opposition half when they’re about to transition into an attacking phase of play is so, so important.

While I’m sure there are some reading this rolling their eyes and saying “well duhhhh Kev”, for any reader that doesn’t understand how powerful winning the ball back high up the pitch is important for the health of our attack, I’m going to lean on a famous Jürgen Klopp quote:

"Think about the passes you have to make to get a player in a number 10 role into a position where he can play the genius pass," he later urged. "Gegenpressing lets you win back the ball nearer to the goal. It's only one pass away from a really good opportunity. No playmaker in the world can be as good as a good gegenpressing situation, and that's why it's so important."

When the intensity disappears from our pressing, chances dry up for our attackers. For the first five games of the season, rather than looking like a team of 'swarmers'—as the ever-excellent George Caulkin likes to describe them when they’re playing at full tilt—they looked like they were running off too many chicken shawarmas.

*groans from the back*

Crap dad jokes aside, I can only speculate about the reasons behind this. Perhaps it’s James Bunce’s influence on training loads designed to keep players fit more consistently. Perhaps it’s some ring rust affecting engine-room players like Joelinton, Tonali, and Willock, who missed a lot of football in 2023/24. Or perhaps it’s the overall tiredness of players like Guimaraes and Gordon, who didn’t get a break from football this summer. But when 'intensity is our identity' is your team mantra and an essential part of your game model, any drop-off in energy levels is felt as keenly in attack as it is in defence.

If that all sounds…a bit crap, then let me add some pep to your step. Across the full ten games, our off-the-ball play is beginning to reach our usual shithouse levels.

And in turn, across the last 3 league games against strong opponents (Brighton, Chelsea & Arsenal) we’re seeing very modest increases in performance on this side of the ball. It’s encouraging, but we will need more against teams who look to frustrate Howe’s men rather than meet them on equal terms.

Forwards still searching for form.

It’s cliche, but utterly true that “Goals change games” and too many times— especially across the games vs. Everton and Brighton—Newcastle United have failed to make the most of being on top in games and is four goals behind (including penalties) where we’d hope they’d be after ten games.

While it’s too simplistic to say that Isak missing a one-on-one vs. Brighton and Gordon missing a penalty at Everon when both games were 0-0 would’ve led to an extra five points on the board, it’s also not hard to imagine the difference getting a goal ahead in both games would’ve made.

While I’m thankful that following two games vs. Chelsea and a truly excellent headed-winner vs. Arsenal, Isak seems to have found his shootin’ boots, we could do with performances 🔴 this season being a little closer to his 23/24 🔵 levels.

So far only Harvey Barnes is getting anywhere close to his shot, expected goals (xG) and expected goals assisted (xGA) output compared to last season 🔴

And it’s especially bad down the right side of the attack where Murphy's and Gordon’s shot output has nearly enough halved so far this season 🔵 when compared to 23/24 🔴.

While Murphy is a total boom-and-bust player whose contributions are better from the bench, Howe will be looking for more from Gordon as the season unfolds. I’m generally not too down on his overall performances given that he’s had to fill in for Isak in a couple of games and is coming off a summer where he joined the group late, but he needs to juice his shot volume.

So where are the solutions coming from? Well, the re-emergence of Joelinton and Willock’s near-telepathic partnership down the left-hand side of the attack was a real feature in the win vs. Arsenal. Their athleticism during transitions is incredibly valuable in both directions of play, while Willock offers more reliable press resistance, consistent passing and carrying ability from midfield than the big Brazilian.

As noted by a couple of Twitter pals this week, against Arsenal, Willock also pushed closer to Isak than we have seen since maybe the 22/23 season. Whether this was a match-specific instruction or a more systemic tweak that we’ll see regularly is something to keep an eye on. It relies on Longstaff dropping into a more holding role next to Guimaraes to create a 4-2-4 shape with the ball. That extra man at the top of the pitch supporting Isak is not the worst way to help kickstart a misfiring attack.

It certainly worked for the goal vs. Arsenal…

The consequence of sticking with the ‘Two Joes’ on the left wing approach, opens up a question of what Anthony Gordon offers if he’s moved to the right wing. Well, across his time at Everton and Newcastle United, he’s shown an aptitude for playing on that side of the pitch—including scoring vs. Bournemouth from that side this season. Below you can see his overall performances playing left wing vs. right wing across his entire Premier League career.

While his shot volume does take a modest dip, so long as he’s pumping his numbers back to his historic norms, it might be a sacrifice worth making while we wait to add a right-sided attacker in January. Personally, I think his creative passing numbers are likely to improve the more time he spends playing on the right of an Eddie Howe attack but that is more of a vibes take on my part. Truthfully, before Barnes’ injury last season allowed him to excel at left wing, I think Gordon as a right-wing option might have been the squad-building plan all along.

An evolving approach to building out from the back.

Another benefit of getting the ‘Two Joes’ back together on the left is that it gives Newcastle United the option of utilising Joelinton’s height and duel-winning ability against fullbacks from goal kicks.

This more direct approach was a feature of our goal kicks in the 22/23 season, with the land spot often well beyond the halfway line. Though it’s not particularly pretty to watch, this more risk-averse and territory-based approach to nerf any opposition attempts to press from restarts has its virtues.

Last season, we moved away from this approach, playing a greater number of short balls as Howe began evolving the team's approach with the ball, encouraging them to play out from the back and through the thirds of the pitch more often.

Newcastle felt the pain of this evolution keenly in defence. As average Goalkeeper Kick Length decreased from 40m to 34m we saw High Press Shots Conceded increase from 2.42 to 4.39 per 90 and the goals against tally increased from 33 to 62. There is, of course, more than one reason for such a substantial jump, but I firmly believe we suffered from a bundle from this.

So far this season, we’re seeing something of a mixed bag in terms of the team’s approach to goal kicks. Fundamentally, it’s still a bit too early to interpret real signals as opposed to noise in the sample of data we have so far.

One thing that is clear to see is that the emergence of Lewis Hall as a first-choice left-back has changed the balance of short passes from goal kicks.

The gravity of Hall’s passing ability—who played as a midfielder for most of his youth career—has resulted in him playing a bigger role in Newcastle’s build-up play, receiving the ball more regularly and centrally than Livramento on the right.

Filling the void left by Trippier’s fitness woes and an overall dip in his form since Everton away in 2023/24, Hall has emerged as a reliable outlet valve when Newcastle are attempting to play through the press and offers a significant number of Deep Progressions – passes or carries that move the ball into the final third.

While Hall 🔵 playing his full-back role in anywhere near as aggressive manner as Trippier 🔴 did in 22/23, his game is more suited to a large role in Newcastle’s build-up than Livramento 🔵 – who relies more on dribbles to beat the press and generate value for Newcastle United.

Having a legitimate press-beating passer on the opposite side of the pitch to Schar in theory gives more freedom to Guimaraes to roam and makes it a little harder for opposing teams to funnel Newcastle’s possession to a perceived weaker side. Watching the team’s build-up play continue to evolve as Hall gets more comfortable and the chance to play alongside Botman is something to look forward to in 2025.

Signs of our defence returning to their best?

I’m not gonna lie, after the first five games of the season 🔵—when ironically results looked good—I was pretty worried about the state of Newcastle United's defence.

While that part of our sample includes the red card home game vs. Southampton, we were conceding 18 shots per game and approaching two expected goals against per 90.

Though I expected us to improve as the season wore on, I didn’t imagine it would happen quite so quickly, and certainly not so much against the strong opposition we’ve played in our most recent set of 5 games 🔴. These are levels we’ve not seen since 22/23, can we keep it up? Remains to be seen.

While luck in front of goal deserted us against Brighton and Everton during that run of results in our first five games, we can thank our lucky stars for Nick Pope. He's returned this season in fine form and, through ten games, he's already at 4.76 Goals Saved Above Average (GSAA).

It highlights how much of a miss he was when he was injured last season. While his passing may leave plenty to be desired, his sweeping and actual goalkeeping is among the best in the division and any potential European run will rely on his form.

Conclusions

So, with 10 games and 15 points on the board, things look like a mixed bag for this version of Howe’s Newcastle United—a sentiment reflected in the team’s overall xG for and against trendlines, as well as our current mid-table position and middle ranking in xG created and conceded this season.

While the defensive improvements seen across the last five games offer some optimism, sustaining these gains is crucial. Ideally, we’ll also boost our attack to move our fundamentals into the top-right quadrant, where results are a little more predictably positive.

Before I leave you, here’s one final reason for optimism: the strength of the schedule we’ve played so far—especially at home. So far, seven of our ten games have been against teams currently in the top half of the league. When you’re not at your best, tougher games become a coin flip, reliant on a few key chances being taken or saved at just the right times. Without improved attacking metrics, however, even strong defending won’t protect us from the occasional long-range stunner that finds the top corner.

When you’re not at your best, tougher games become a coin flip where you rely on a small handful of chances being taken or saved at the right times. Unless our attacking metrics improve no amount of great defending will protect us from the games where a 30-yarder finds its way into the top corner.

After encouraging performances against Everton, Brighton, Chelsea (twice), and Arsenal, I genuinely hope our results will continue to improve. Right now, though, we’re in a bit of a hinterland, waiting to see how the remainder of 2024 will unfold. Fingers crossed we’re both good enough and lucky enough to stay within reach of the European spots when the January window opens and gives us a chance to refresh the squad.