Keep or Sell? Callum Wilson
The debate over whether to keep a proven Premier League goalscorer as an option from the bench or sell an ageing striker that can't be relied upon to be available.
I’m a chronically online person. I spend WAY too much time scrolling the feeds on Twitter looking for news of a pending Newcastle United transfer, an update about what’s next for the stadium and just generally following the wider discourse. It’s not exactly a problem, but I could do with a bit less double screening.
One of the benefits of scrolling miles of the #NUFC feeds is that you get a general vibe for topics that cause disagreements. There is one such topic at the moment: The Future of Callum Wilson.
Generally speaking, the arguments can be divided into two camps:
Keep him - As a bench option because “he guarantees goals” but we ‘MUST’ sign another young striker because he can’t stay fit
Sell him - Because though he’s a proven goalscorer, we need players that are available & we should sell rather than allow him to leave for free
Like all of the best debates, both positions have merit, so let’s explore them.
The case for keeping Wilson
1: He scores goals
Scoring is the hardest thing to do in football. It’s why players, like Wilson, who have proven time and again that they can find the net at the highest levels of the game are so sought after.
In four seasons at Newcastle United, Wilson has scored 48 times in just 108 games, which is a great rate of return. When fit he has pace and when he is presented with a good chance, there’s a general confidence he’ll finish it.
When we look at just his Premier League data, we can see he’s performed a little better than average over these four seasons, though his overall tallies have been boosted by a decent chunk of penalties too.
2: Replacing him would be a hard task
Finding reliable Premier League goalscorers can be an expensive business. So many teams take punts on strikers with good/great-looking data and scouting reports that just don’t cut it. Despite what most armchair fans think, recruitment isn’t easy, heck Newcastle United paid 40m for Joelinton who didn’t turn out to be the striker we’d hoped for.
Even if it would be fairly easy to find another striker whose hold-up and link-up play are closer to Isak’s 🔵 , finding a striker within our price range who matches Wilson’s 🔴 expected goals (xG) numbers from limited minutes AND would be okay as a backup to Isak… is a not insignificant challenge.
3: He might be at the stage of his career where he’s happy playing less…
Now this one is pure speculation on my part and anyone who makes this a core part of their argument is entirely guessing. However, for argument’s sake, let’s say that Wilson (or his support team) recognises that his body isn’t holding up as well as it once was and they also spotted that 5 of his 9 goals came from the bench last season.
You could be led to a school of thought where accepting a role from the bench and playing fewer minutes, but against tiring legs is the best way for him to a.) get more goals and b.) use this form to leverage one final massive contract from the MLS or Saudi Pro League.
The case for selling Wilson
1: His injuries prevent him from being a reliable option
While I’m unsure that his ego will allow it, even if we convince ourselves that Wilson is happy being a dude who comes off of the bench, looks handsome, bangs one in the net, and then smiles and salutes his way into our hearts, Wilson’s durability raises serious questions.
Below is a table of the injuries he’s suffered while at Newcastle United.
That’s 85 games missed in just four seasons. He suffered five injuries last season and completed just 1159 minutes of action in the EPL. With Isak himself picking up the odd knock and pull, it feels like a game of roulette to rely on Wilson to be healthy to start when you need him. Anecdotally, it also feels like it takes him a bit longer to find his groove when he returns from injury. Perhaps the appointment of Bunce could help give you a bit more confidence, but right now it gives me the yips.
This might be less of an issue if Newcastle sign a right winger who legitimately can cover up front too, creating a pecking order of Isak, Wilson, Gordan/New right winger, but after coming off the worst season I’ve known from an injury perspective, it’s a worry.
2: Is his performance dipping?
Wilson relies on his speed, ball-carrying and off-ball movement to fashion or get on the end of chances. He likes to run in behind and has the knack of being in the right place at the right time for a tap-in.
Last season 🔵 we saw a dip in the quality of Wilson’s passing, his shot volume and he began to turnover the ball away at a higher rate than in 22/23 🔴
Now, there could be several factors behind this. Of course, Newcastle’s form suffered last season, especially during the December to end of January run where everyone was injured or knackered. However, it seems the worst of his performances came after February, though the same size for this is very small.
Without the ball, I wonder whether Howe’s pressing style is starting to take the sharper edges off of his attacking game. While Wilson recorded a higher rate of pressures and pressure regains per 90 than in 22/23, they were concentrated to a smaller area of the pitch.
When you compare this to the range of Isak’s defensive activity, the difference feels pretty stark and is perhaps another nod that the striker is physically declining.
3: Can Newcastle afford to let him leave for free?
Finally, there’s the dreaded PSR part of this equation. A few weeks ago Newcastle United were forced to sell Yankuba Minteh and Elliott Anderson to avoid a points deduction for exceeding 105m worth of losses in the previous 3-year window.
Newcastle could sell Wilson this summer and bank the profit (especially given Wilson’s contract is almost fully amortised) then use the fee to add a younger striker to the squad.
But why not keep Wilson and also add a young striker, to get the best of both worlds? Well with UEFA’s squad cost ratio rule needing Newcastle’s wage bill to be just 80% of revenues this season (down from 90% in 23/24) and will reduce to 70% for the 25/26 season, Wilson’s reportedly ‘among the top earners’ wages would make it unfeasible to carry another striker level wage on top.
What should Newcastle do?
So this brings me to what I think would be optimal for Newcastle United. So let’s talk scenarios:
Team X bids £18m+ for Callum Wilson: This is an absolute no-brainer, the decision needs to be taken for the good of the wider project to move Wilson on and reinvest in someone who could potentially fill Isak’s shoes in the longer term.
Team Y bids £10m + add-ons for Callum Wilson: The answer to this depends entirely on the replacements we believe are available in the market. For example, it’s reported that Jonathon David is available from between £25-30m this summer. Newcastle could bank the £10m fee as profit and sign David on a 5-year deal which would be amortised to just £5-6m per season, we could double his wages and this is still likely to be less than Wilson is currently paid. The extra headroom might come in useful when the club looking to renew Isak/Gordon’s contracts.
Team Z bids £5m+ performance & appearance-based add-ons: Do I want to risk annoying Eddie Howe by accepting a bid this low and having to fill his shoes without much extra in the budget? I do not.
The outcome will depend on how desperate potential buyers get in their search for a striker. The more that lower half of the table Premier League clubs miss out on younger targets the likelier it becomes we see something in the Team X and Y range, giving Newcastle a big decision to stick or twist.