Opposition analysis: Southampton (H)
A look at what last seasons data tell us about about how Russell Martin's south coast team will approach the noise of St James' Park.
Welcome to your pre-match primer for Newcastle’s first game of the season vs. Southampton at St. James’ Park.
I’m going to try to keep drafting these before each league game (though life might get in the way) and make them as short and digestible as possible, to provide you with a quick snapshot of what to expect and help you sound a bit smarter in whatever pub, WhatsApp group or social media platform you use.
End of Season Form
Coming up via the playoffs, Southampton limped into the Premier League with an attack that regressed towards the end of the season (probably due to fatigue) while their defensive metrics remained largely unchanged throughout the season.
In particular, over the final few months of the season, their form took a pretty nasty dip when their luck at both ends of the pitch ran cold after running hot for months on end in the middle of the season.
Style of Play
Russell Martin’s men tend to line up in a similar 4-3-3 shape to NUFC, however, for tricky away games they used a 5-3-2/3-5-2 system, so I’d expect that at SJP. Generally, they keep quite a high line but aren’t fierce pressers of the ball, preferring to remain organised. They do a lot of their defending with the ball and move the ball, playing out from the back, passing methodically and slowly towards the goal with more valuable progressive actions and threats coming via carries, rather than trying to break the lines with aggressive vertical passes.
I’d imagine that their out-of-possession approach may be tweaked as they move up to a higher level, so we might see them drop a few yards and not allow teams quite as much time on the ball. If they decide to play the same way, Isak, Murphy and Gordon/Barnes could have a field day running into all that delicious space.
Key men
In terms of specific threats, the Saints have added Brereton Díaz, to their attack who lowkey did pretty well from the left wing in what was a poor Sheff Utd team.
Otherwise, Adam Armstrong and Sékou Mara are their biggest remaining goal threats, while David Brooks and Stuart Armstrong tend to be the players who unlock the defences.
Newcastle’s Fraser obviously won’t feature, though I’m almost certain troubles agreeing a fee with Southampton will evaporate quickly after the first game is done.
When fit, Brooks can cause real issues to Premier League defences, his creative passing belongs at this level and the plot of a player returning to full health after a cancer scare and excelling back in England’s top division is something I’m actively rooting for (though hopefully later in the season).
While there are some questions about whether physically he can live with Premier League-level defenders, if Hall or Burn give him too much time to pick a pass, then he’ll create a chance.
Conclusions
The main key here will be how NUFC’s aggressive press interacts with Southampton’s patient possession play and high defensive line. I’d imagine the Saints will aim to defend with five at the back, which would normally give them an extra man in the build-up. However, up against Newcastle’s intensity and aggressive man-to-man pressing system, this will be an early test to see if they stick to the principles that got them promoted.
Martin’s men were already conceding 3.04 high-press shots and an overall xG conceded of 0.95 per 90 minutes last season. Faced with the step up in quality – unless they change their approach entirely – it should be an area where Howe’s men can benefit. When you add the relative gulf in quality between the teams and the fact that Southampton’s goalkeeping department leaves a lot to be desired, it feels like anything other than a home win would be a surprise.